More and more post secondary education is taking place online as opposed to brick and mortar locations like big universities. I expect this transition to continue and most likely increase in pace as technology is continually changing and improving. In the time it takes to write and publish a textbook I can gain a lifetime of knowledge on a subject from Google and Wikipedia.
As this trend continues, what affect is this going to have on traditional campuses? It’s a lot cheaper to take class from home than move half way across the country from mom and dad to experience that college lifestyle. I probably would’ve gotten more out of my psychology class if I didn’t have to be there at 8:00 a.m. four times a week. I expect on campus enrollments, as a national total, to decline while overall enrollment will increase. I expect to see traditional classroom classes go by the wayside for the most part other than labs and experimental areas. In this I expect to see fewer brick and mortar universities.
With all of this transition, what will become of college sports? If half of the students enrolled at your university are online and halfway across the country, do they really care if their school is playing for the national championship? Could today’s NCAA football structure survive to compete against the NFL if on campus enrollments were to decline at a rapid rate?
I don’t believe all 120 BCS teams (schools) could survive at this level. I haven’t yet taken the time to look into each school’s football budget to see what the numbers look like so this is pretty much speculation here. Say each team in the all new NCAA League has 70 players. This number is larger than the 53-man roster the NFL has. Assume the NCAA League pays players comparative to the NFL. How many of the smaller BCS teams (schools) could afford that at their current revenue levels? For arguments sake, say half of the teams can’t make it on the pro level. Do they become semi-pro feeder teams or do they remain as college teams providing players with scholarships instead of a salary? Also, of the 60 teams that are a pro league, what happens with their fan base? Are 110,000+ fans still going to show up in Ann Arbor on a Saturday if the team they are cheering for isn’t affiliated with the university they attended?
I see post-secondary education changing greatly in the next 10 years in the way it is delivered. Within that I see college football changing greatly as well. What would you like to see happen to the game as education changes over the next decade?
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